If you mostly use chat-style AI tools and keep wondering which new launch is worth following, this is the filter. The easiest mistake is to judge a Half-Baked Product by how polished version one looks instead of whether there is a credible 18-month roadmap. That mistake costs time, budget, and attention, because you end up chasing surface hype instead of the products that may actually matter next.
A Half-Baked Product sells certainty about the next 18 months. You scroll past a launch, almost move on, then hesitate because you do not want to miss the one thing that could put you behind. A product update is not worth your attention because it lists more features. It is worth your attention if it changes your next decision.
That is the point of the roadmap. What makes a rough product worth betting on is not a polished first version. It is visible direction over the next 18 to 36 months [S001]. In Steve Blank's framing, most customers dislike a minimum feature set. The people who buy early are the rare early believers, and they buy because they can see where the product is going [S001].
This is also the boundary. The idea fits early-stage launches aimed at people who like trying new tools early. It does not automatically apply to mass-market products. And it is not permission to worship the roadmap and ignore the product. A future story cannot excuse something unusable.
So if you are trying to decide whether to follow the next rough AI tool, do not ask, "Is this finished?" Ask, "Is there a believable 18-month roadmap, and is this for early adopters rather than everyone?" If the answer is no, skip it. If the answer is yes, save it and share it with the friend who keeps sending you every new AI launch.