先说结论

If you mostly use chat-style AI and you're just starting to follow new AI tools, this is the mistake most likely to cost you: you see a launch in your feed, almost scroll past, then stop because you do not want to miss the next real shift.

If you judge that Half-Baked Product by surface polish, you can waste time, budget, and attention on the wrong bet. The quieter cost is that you keep orbiting surface excitement and miss the one update that actually changes your next move.

My filter is simple: a half-baked product is not selling today's feature list. It is selling confidence about the next 18 months.

为什么这次值得看

That is why an 18-month roadmap can matter more than a cleaner v1. A product update is not worth your attention because of how many features it lists. It is worth your attention if it changes your next decision.

Steve Blank made the early-adopter version of this point back in 2010: most customers dislike a minimum feature set, while early believers buy when they can see an 18-to-36-month direction, not just a rough v1.[S001]

关键证据

So when a Half-Baked Product shows up, I ask one question: does this team's roadmap make the next 18 months feel more certain, or is the roadmap covering for something unusable?

Boundary: this is not a hands-on teardown of one product. It is a decision filter based on Blank's 2010 post and an early-adopter lens. That boundary matters, because a roadmap can signal conviction or hide a weak product.

If this filter would help someone stop chasing shiny launches and start making better next-step calls, share it.

#ProductStrategy #Startups #AITools #ProductManagement

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